Looks Like Another Russian Landing Ship Just Blew Up

The Russian Black Sea Fleet’s Ropucha-class landing ship Caesar Kunikov narrowly escaped Berdyansk when Ukrainian rockets bombarded the Russian-occupied port on March 24, 2022.

The 369-foot Kunikov suffered damage—and her skipper died—when the landing ship Saratov exploded nearby, peppering Kunikov with wreckage.

Twenty-three months later, the Ukrainians returned for Kunikov. Videos that circulated online on Wednesday reportedly depict the landing ship burning and sinking a few miles off Alupka on the southern tip of Russian-occupied Crimea.

The Russians’ practice of using their landing ships to haul ammunition to their garrisons in southern Ukraine both explains why the Ukrainians apparently made a point of targeting Kunikov—and why the vessel would explode after getting hit, reportedly by explosive drone boats.

The Black Sea Fleet began Russia’s wider war in Ukraine with nine landing ships, including six Ropuchas and three Tapirs. Several more landing ships reinforced the Black Sea Fleet from the Baltic and Northern Fleets.

In two years of hard fighting, the Ukrainians have blown up or sunk three of the Ropuchas plus the Tapir-class Saratov.

They’ve also blown up or sunk a cruiser, a submarine, a supply ship, several patrol boats and small landing craft and a missile-corvette.

These losses amount to more than a fifth of the Black Sea Fleet. In losing—to Ukrainian rockets, cruise missiles and drone boats—warships together displacing around 15,000 tons, the Russian navy nearly erased the 18,000 tons of new warships it built last year.

That makes it one of the few big navies that actually is stagnant by tonnage; most of the other top-10 navies steadily are growing as they replace many small warships with fewer, but much larger, new ships.

Russian troops may be advancing, slowly and at great cost, in the ruins of Avdiivka, a Ukrainian stronghold just northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Three hundred miles away off Crimea, however, the Russians are losing—badly.

Lately writing off warships at a rate of roughly one a month, the Black Sea Fleet has had no choice but to pull most of its ships from the most vulnerable Crimean ports—and also from Novorossiysk in southern Russia.

But the dwindling flotilla of Ropuchas and Tapirs—apparently eight or nine are left out of the pre-war roster—can’t help but sail within range of Ukrainian munitions. Their primary mission of hauling ammunition to southern Ukraine requires them to dock in Crimea. That makes them vulnerable.

As the wider war grinds into its third year and the front line freezes essentially everywhere but Avdiivka, expect the Ukrainian navy and air force to double down on their anti-shipping campaign. Especially on their anti-shipping campaign targeting the Russians’ landing ships.

For Russia and Ukraine, this year is likely to be a year of positional warfare as neither side gains much ground and both sides concentrate on preserving and rebuilding their forces.

If the Ukrainians can sink the remaining Tapirs and Ropuchas, they could sever the main maritime supply lines into southern Ukraine, and squeeze the Russian regiments and brigades in Crimea and southern Kherson Oblasts.

If the Ukrainians can sink those vessels and drop the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia to Crimea, they could starve those regiments and brigades—and set conditions for Ukrainian gains in the south in 2025.