Bold predictions in a fantasy baseball setting are bold for a reason, because they are risky and beyond conventional wisdom. Predicting Aaron Judge to hit 30 home runs is far from bold. Predicting him not to, well, is bold. With 2024 spring training games underway, now seems like a fine time -- not at all bold, incidentally -- to go bold.
Some of our bold predictions from last season hit the goal or came close, which makes us smile. Cody Bellinger and Jose Berrios indeed bounced back nicely with the Cubs and Blue Jays, respectively. The Dodgers' James Outman and Tigers' Kerry Carpenter won starting roles and hit for power. Oakland's Esteury Ruiz stole 50-plus bases, and Pittsburgh's Ji Hwan Bae stole 24. Miami's Jesus Luzardo and Minnesota's Jhoan Duran were great.
Then again, other picks look foolish in retrospect. Vaughn Grissom and Michael Soroka did not thrive for Atlanta. They barely played at all. (But watch out in 2024!) Colorado's Kris Bryant flopped, yet again. Don't ask about the now-retired Nelson Cruz and Adam Wainwright, or afterthoughts Drew Rucinski and Oscar Gonzalez. Hey, we take chances, and sometimes we should not have.
Regardless, let us go bold yet again, this time for 2024, finishing up with the National League.
Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Jordan Lawlar, 21, spends half of April at Triple-A, then returns to the majors to replace overrated All-Star Geraldo Perdomo and hits .260 with 16 homers and 30 steals. The DH platoon of OFs Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk combine for a solid 36 home runs. ... RHP Brandon Pfaadt, playoff hero, makes 30 starts with a 3.70 ERA, and is one of four Diamondbacks to strike out 180 hitters (Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez).
Atlanta Braves: This is a loaded offense, obviously, and new OF Jarred Kelenic joins the party, hitting 24 homers and stealing 18 bases. 3B Austin Riley hits a team-best 45 home runs. ... New LHP Chris Sale, however, makes only 14 starts, fewer than rookie RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, 21, who makes 22 starts with a 3.65 ERA. RHP Charlie Morton whiffs 190 hitters in his final season.
Chicago Cubs: Rookie alerts! The Bellinger signing means that top OF prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong starts the season in the minors, but he forces his way onto the big club in July and he becomes the team's leadoff hitter. New 1B Michael Busch hits 24 homers. Infield prospect Matthew Shaw takes over the 3B job in June and hits .275 with 10 homers. ... New LHP Shota Imanaga leads the starters with a 3.44 ERA and 160 strikeouts. RHP Julian Merryweather saves 19 games to lead the club.
Cincinnati Reds: SS Elly De La Cruz steals 56 bases and strikes out 206 times. Both numbers lead the NL. 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, the primary DH after Jonathan India gets traded to the Giants, leads the Reds with 29 homers. ... RHP Hunter Greene makes 30 starts and strikes out 212 hitters with a 3.66 ERA. Prospect Connor Phillips finds control and piles on the strikeouts over 23 starts.
Colorado Rockies: Frustrating OF Kris Bryant, adding 1B eligibility, bats 592 times and hits .273 with 22 homers and 94 RBIs. Rookie OF/1B Hunter Goodman settles into the RF role and hits a team-leading 26 home runs. SS Ezequiel Tovar reaches 20/20. ... You do not want any Rockies pitcher except for closer Justin Lawrence, who leads the club in saves (21), but also in strikeouts with 90. This is not a starting rotation that will excel in whiffs.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers lead the majors with 950 runs. New DH Shohei Ohtani knocks in a massive 144 of them. Six Dodgers hit 30 home runs, including OFs James Outman and Teoscar Hernandez. 2B/OF Gavin Lux, now the SS, scores 81 runs while batting ninth. ... Three Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone) make more than 20 starts. Stone is the one you can -- and should -- draft late.
Miami Marlins: 3B Jake Burger finishes with more walks than home runs. For him, that might be bold. We are not going to predict that 2B Luis Arraez hits .400 or OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. bats 500 times. That's way too bold. How about 1B Trey Mancini makes the club and hits 22 homers? ... The pitching is good. LHP Trevor Rogers bounces back nicely and he makes a career-high 26 starts with a 3.70 ERA.
Milwaukee Brewers: Top OF prospect Jackson Chourio, 20, does not make the team for April. He debuts in July. (Sorry, folks!) Intriguing 3B prospect Tyler Black debuts earlier and he hits .283 with 34 stolen bases. New 1B Rhys Hoskins hits a career-high 35 home runs. No other Brewer reaches 24. ... LHPs DL Hall and Aaron Ashby combine for 50 starts and monster strikeout rates. Invest.
New York Mets: C Francisco Alvarez, in his second season, hits a team-leading 31 homers. Wait, what about 1B Pete Alonso? He gets traded to the Mariners in July. 1B Mark Vientos becomes the new Alonso. He hits 28 home runs. SS Joey Wendle becomes the everyday 2B and bats 467 times. ... Potential Opening Day starter (yes, things are not so good in Mets land) LHP Jose Quintana makes the All-Star team, but does not end up as a top-75 fantasy SP. He leads the staff in innings with 150.
Philadelphia Phillies: SS Trea Turner goes 30/30 for the first time. Six Phillies steal at least 20 bases (Turner, 2B Bryson Stott, C J.T. Realmuto, OFs Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas, 2B/OF Whit Merrifield). ... RHP Zack Wheeler wins 18 games and his first NL Cy Young Award. LHP Cristopher Sanchez posts a 2.96 ERA in 27 starts, and he wins as many games as RHP Aaron Nola, only with a better ERA.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Oneil Cruz and OF Jack Suwinski each hit 30 homers, the first season in which a pair of Pirates do so since 2012 (Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez). Liover Peguero takes the 2B job and delivers 18 home runs and 17 steals. ... RHP Mitch Keller and LHP Aroldis Chapman are the lone Pirates with 100 strikeouts. Prospect RHP Jared Jones makes twice as many starts as RHP Paul Skenes.
San Diego Padres: SS Xander Bogaerts, now handling second base, hits .320 and nearly wins the NL batting title. SS Jackson Merrill and OF Jakob Marsee debut in June. Marsee steals more bases. 1B/2B Jake Cronenworth bounces back and hits .270 with 20 home runs. ... Former Yankees RHPs Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and Drew Thorpe (all from the Juan Soto trade) make more than half the team's starts. Brito has the best ERA of the bunch.
San Francisco Giants: No Giant has hit 30 home runs since Barry Bonds. OF Jorge Soler will smack 40. Unfortunately, no other Giant will hit half that many. 2B/SS Thairo Estrada makes his first All-Star team and misses a 20/20 season by one home run. ... RHP Jordan Hicks makes a surprising 25 starts, but he wins only four of them because he seldom goes five innings.
St. Louis Cardinals: Seven Cardinals hit 25 or more home runs, including OFs Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar plus surprise DH Luken Baker, who wins the starting job out of spring training. C Willson Contreras and IFs Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman are the others. SS Masyn Winn steals 31 bases. Rookie OF Victor Scott II doubles that in only four months in the majors. ... RHP Sonny Gray, for the first season since 2019, wins double-digit games, even with an early April IL stint. RHP prospect Gordon Graceffo earns a rotation spot by June.
Washington Nationals: New OF Joey Gallo hits .210, the second-best batting average of his career. He adds 33 homers. OF James Wood debuts in June and hits 14 homers over 300 PA. OF Dylan Crews does not debut. ... RHP Cade Cavalli joins the rotation in August and instantly looks like an ace. LHP Patrick Corbin, of all people, throws the only no-hitter in the majors.