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| Masks depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, private military company Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, center, and Soviet leader Josef Stalin, left, are displayed at a souvenir shop in St. Petersburg, Russia, Sunday. AP-Yonhap |
Favored tactic of dictators: 'Kill the chicken to scare the monkey'
By Kang Hyun-kyung
The tragic plane crash that killed Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who staged an abortive mutiny against Russia's military in July, is a chilling reminder of how autocratic leaders silence their opponents.
Russia flatly denied speculation that President Vladimir Putin might have been the mastermind behind the plane crash to remove Prigozhin.
Despite the denial, speculation mounted over the Russian leader's alleged involvement in the accident, which was reported to have been caused by an internal explosion. Earlier, Putin reacted furiously to Wagner Group's rebellion and called it "treason."
The mercenary group's boss is not the first Putin critic who faced a tragic end. Many other opponents of Putin were killed in accidents or sent to prison. Igor Girkin, for example, an ultranationalist blogger who had been critical of Putin, was jailed on charges of "inciting extremist activities." Boris Nemtsov, a liberal politician and outspoken critic of Putin, was shot dead in February 2015 while crossing a bridge near the Kremlin.
Fear politics has long been part of the playbook autocratic leaders refer to in order to stay in power.
Like autocrats in other countries, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has relied on the tactic to remove his political rivals, silence critics and show others the consequences of dissent.
On Dec. 12, 2013, the North Korean leader executed his uncle Jang Song-thaek, and his two deputies, Ri Ryong-ha and Jang Su-gil, for attempting to overthrow the regime. Their bodies were shredded by anti-aircraft guns used in the public execution that took place at Gang Gun Military Academy in front of hundreds of officials.
Through the gruesome display, Kim was trying to send a clear message: Don't even dream about a rebellion.
Four years later, Kim's paranoia grabbed international attention again.
His half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, was assassinated in February of 2017 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia. The older Kim died after two Southeast Asian women__ one from Vietnam and the other from Indonesia__ smeared VX nerve agent on his face. He died before an ambulance brought him to a hospital. Rumors swirled about the North Korean leader being behind the assassination.
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| Jang Song-thaek, second from right, uncle of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, is last seen at a military court in North Korea on Dec. 12 before he was executed publicly in front of hundreds of officials at Gang Gun Military Academy near Pyongyang on Dec. 12, 2013. Korea Times file |
Politics of fear
In a 2017 report, the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) said the assassination was a premeditated terror attack sponsored by North Korea.
"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un either directly ordered it or he could have given his deputies the green light to proceed with the murder plan they proposed," it read.
The INSS reasoned that Kim's half-brother was targeted probably because he and his son, Han-sol, publicly criticized North Korea's third-generation leadership succession and its leader by labeling him as "a dictator."
"Their critical comments would have irked Kim Jong-un. He also would have felt threatened because his half-brother was regarded by people outside of North Korea as a leader-in-waiting in the event of a regime change in the North," the report read.
He is a tyrant and in North Korea, what he says is practically the law, which cannot be changed or challenged. Therefore, if there is anyone who he finds to be unacceptable, he could do anything to change that person's fate, the INSS report said.
James Gethyn Evans, a China expert and visiting faculty at George Washington University in Washington D.C., said autocrats live in fear as their tenures can be cut short by enemies from within.
"In general, autocratic leaders are much more likely to be deposed by a rival from within rather than a popular uprising," he said in a recent email interview with The Korea Times. "Autocrats therefore tend to prioritize keeping elites around them happy to stave off potential challenges to their authority."
Evans said Putin is similar to Mao Zedong, among other Chinese leaders, in terms of their way of handling opponents.
"As autocrats age and often have episodes of poor health, potential challenges start to circulate like vultures as they position themselves as potential successors. Autocratic leaders like Mao and it would seem Putin therefore tend to become increasingly paranoid as their position within the ruling party faces increasing threats," he said. "Mao and Putin certainly share a willingness to remove rivals, often brutally and very publicly, to, as the Chinese adage goes, 'kill the chicken to scare the monkey.'"
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| Ousted Chinese politician Bo Xilai, center, is handcuffed after the announcement of his verdict by a court in Jinan, Shandong province in this September, 2013 file photo released by Jinan Intermediate People's Court. Korea Times file |
Purge in guise of reform
Once they rise to power, autocratic leaders use purges to consolidate their power and remove political rivals. This usually takes the form of reforms to root out bad, corrupt practices.
Since taking office in 2012, Chinese leader Xi Jinping launched an anti-corruption campaign, vowing to tackle widespread corruption in the public and private sectors.
Xi had an unstated goal to achieve with the nationwide campaign: the removal of his political rivals to stabilize his power.
"Xi's targeting of Bo Xilai, the former party secretary of Chongqing and considered to be a key rival, highlighted the Chinese leader's willingness to remove potential rivals early on in a very public manner," said Evans.
At that time, Bo, a former party chief of Chongqing and a member of China's Politburo, was a rising star and became popular for his ruthless crackdown on organized crime during his years of service as mayor of Dalian and governor of Liaoning Province.
All of sudden, accolades about his charismatic leadership began to disappear as Xi took power and targeted him in the purge. Bo was convicted of bribery and embezzlement and disappeared from the public eye.
"As demonstrated by Bo Xilai's case, publicly detaining someone on corruption charges serves multiple ambitions: to demonstrate Xi's willingness to act on corruption compared to his predecessors; to shore up populist support for his leadership during the early years when he was still relatively unknown to many in China; and to remove political rivals from within China's elite," said Evans.
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| This combined image shows, from left, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong, who ruled China from 1954 to 1976. |
Putin vs. Xi
Although Xi and Putin share a willingness to remove political rivals, experts say they differ in the details.
Xi is subtler and more deliberate than Putin when pushing for reforms to oust his rivals, according to Joel Atkinson, a professor at the Graduate School of International and Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
"Since he took power, it has been an ongoing process of removing or sidelining those who are not loyal to him or disagree with his policies and putting in place his allies," Atkinson said. "An anti-corruption campaign was used to remove some very senior people. But it has mostly not involved putting people in prison. It is a much quieter and subtle matter of putting or not putting individuals in positions of influence and power."
Atkinson said direct violence is somewhat more apparent in Russian politics.
"Like Stalin, Mao was responsible for a staggering amount of violence and death. But in terms of intra-elite politics, Mao would use more indirect humiliation and sidelining compared to Stalin, who was more ready to straight up murder his opponents," he said.
Their differentiated approaches to removing rivals appear to be associated with the influence they could exert inside the party, as well as over their nationals.
If leaders have a solid power base, they may not feel tempted to resort to politics of fear, such as assassinating opponents in the guise of accidents.
Experts agreed that Xi maintains a loyal group of followers, whereas Putin's domestic power base is not as strong.
"Putin's reliance on paramilitary actors like the Wagner Group suggests that Putin's grip on power is far weaker than Xi's, who mostly leverages state and party apparatuses to enact his plans," said Evans.
Atkinson concurred.
"Xi is hypervigilant about ensuring the situation never gets as bad as an armed convoy heading to Beijing, chiefly by maintaining a firm grip over the military," he said. "And if Xi did have someone he wanted out of the way, he doesn't kill them in 'accidents.' He removes them from the public view, pressures their families to stay quiet and discredits them."
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| A portrait of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is displayed at an informal memorial in his tribute in Moscow, Russia, Monday. EPA-Yonhap |
